The Green Party results

In Atlantic Canada, the Greens came in fourth in all ridings except Central Nova, where they beat the NDP and came in second.

In Quebec, it was mostly fifth place finishes where they ran candidates-68 ridings showed them at number 5. They were sixth in one and fourth in three. They did manage to beat the Conservatives, Liberals, BQ or NDP in a couple of ridings.

Ontario was mostly fourth place finishes. Greens beat the Conservatives in 2 ridings, the Liberals in one and the NDP in eight.

In Manitoba, it was mostly fourth place finishes again. They did manage to beat the Liberals in one riding and the NDP in one riding.

In Saskatchewan, the Greens beat the Liberals in two ridings. In Alberta the Greens managed a second place showing and beat the Liberals in 11 ridings and the NDP in 6.

In BC, the Greens beat the Liberals in nine ridings and the NDP in three. The Greens also beat the NDP in the Yukon.

Any future growth will likely come in the five most western provinces.

What the Liberals need to do next.

1) Acknowledge that if the majority of Quebec citizens reject the Trudeau vision of federalism, no minority of Canadians living outside of Quebec has the right to try to force Quebec to accept the Trudeau vision of federalism as the only acceptable vison of how the country should work.
2) Apologize to Quebec for the role the Liberal party played in the death of Meech Lake. Have Jean Chretien, Sharon Carstairs and Frank McKenna apologize for their role in the death of Meech Lake.
3) Acknowledge that western Canada is under represented in the House of Commons and the Senate and pledge to give western Canadians fair representation in both places.
4) Support the current legislation to elect senators for fixed terms. Liberals should not be sending Canadian soldiers and diplomats to die trying to establish democracy in Afghanistan, while maintaining that those same citizens aren’t good enough to run for the senate, or even vote for a senator.
5) Promise no new taxes. Not green taxes, no new taxes.
6) Come up with some simple ideas to save tax payers money and be seen to be co-operating with other parties to implement the ideas in the minority parliament.
7) Have a one person, one vote leadership race, and charge a lot of money to take part in the vote.

2007 IN REVIEW
Winners of the Year: Stephen Harper, Dalton McGuinty, Brad Wall, Mario Dumont,the NDP
Losers of the Year: Stephane Dion, John Tory, Andre Boisclair, the BQ
Best Political Show Host: Peter Mansbridge for "At Issue"
Worst Political Show Host: Jane Taber
Best Political Columnist: Chantal Hebert, Sheila Copps, Greg Weston
Best Political Blog: Calgary Grit- It's not only the lack of competition.Well written, a sense of humour and never hysterically partisan.
Most Effective Blogger: Stephen Taylor. A thorn in the side for the CBC.
Best New Blog: Blue Lemons-I especially liked the daily summaries of the political shows.
Political Fan-Dancer: The Liberals. Do they want to bring down the government or not?
Most Over-Hyped Story: Global warming, Mulroney/Schrieber.
Most Under-Reported News Story: How Canadian casualities in Afghanistan are related to Liberals not arming our troops properly.
Best Political Pundit: Joy McPhail, Goldy Hyder.
Worst Political Pundit: Gerard Kennedy. His personality shows why he'll never be Liberal leader.
Best Political Journalist/Commentator: Don Martin, Bob Fife, John Ivision
Worst Political Journalist/Commentator: Susan Delacourt
Best Hair: Rahim Jaffer
Worst Hair: Mark Holland, still. Eraserhead, as Kinsella said.
Best Cabinet Minister: Jim Prentice
Best Oppostion Voices: Ralph Goodale, Michael Ignatieff
Most Powerful Religious Group: Sikhs
Most Powerless Religious Group: Evangelicals
Fading Ethnic Power-broker: Denis Coderre
Rising Ethnic Power-broker: The NDP.
Reap-As-You Sow Award: Harper befriending Mulroney and then suffering guilt by association.
Good Riddence Award: The retiring Liberal MPs.
Tough Luck Award: Mario Dumont, who won big without a caucus to go with the prize.
Courtney Love Award: Ernie Fage, bounced from the Nova Scotai goverment for leaving the scene of an accident.
Canadian Heroes of the Year: Our soldiers in Afghanistan, still
Canadian Zeroes of the Year: Liberals, for keeping themselves out of an election.
Please Go Away: Irene Mathyssen
We Miss You: Preston Manning, Frank McKenna
Political Comeback: Conservatives in Quebec.
Political Bomb: That Liberal guy who lost Outremont.

Out in Outremont

Outremont is a lovely part of Montreal. Whether the by-election results there were lovely depends on whether you are a fan of Stephane Dion. The residents of that riding were not. Is the NDP win a fluke, like the last NDP by-election win in Quebec was? Or is it an omen of things to come, like the 1990 by-election in Laurier-Ste. Marie that first elected Gilles Duceppe to the House of Commons as a BQ MP?
The 1990 by-election was called because a beloved Liberal MP died of cancer. His widow was planning to run to succeed him. However, the newly elected federal Liberal leader-Jean Chretien-had his thugs pressure the widow to bow out of the race so his fart-catcher Denis Coderre could run in the riding. As the election wound down, the widow popped up in the media and said "If my husband was alive, he'd vote for the BQ", dooming any chance the Liberals had and setting the stage for Duceppe's political career.
Are there any similarities between that by-election and the one in Outremont?
New Liberal leader unpopular with francophones? Check.
Local Liberals shoved aside in the nomination process? Check.
Liberals with name recognition shut out of the nomination? Check.
Liberal leader's crony forced on riding? Check.
Quebec continuing the drift away from the Liberal party that started in 1984? Check.
The Quebec voters now realize they have a viable option. Unhappy with Conservatives? Don' t want to vote for the Trudeau/Chretien/Anti-Meech crowd? There is another option, especially if you're tired of the seperatist debate, as Qubeckers showed they were in the last provincial election.
The Liberals now have 12 of the 75 seats in Quebec. Some of them went Conservative under Mulroney, some were barely held on to in the last federal election. The look on Pablo Rodriguez's face as he talked to the CPAC reporter on the night of the Liberal loss in Outremont indicated that he knew how tenuous the Liberal party's situation in Quebec was.
This isn't a blip. It's a new option for Quebec voters. The collapse of the Green vote and the NDP growth in the by-elections was the first indication. Name candidates from Montreal choosing to run for the NDP will be the confirmation.

Mario! Mario! Mario!

I've always been a fan of Mario Dumont, from the time he walked out of the Liberal party. Young and photogenic, he was so serious that it was cute. Now he has grown into the role and is a serious contender for power in Quebec.

If Dumont was the unofficial winner in the Quebec election, Justin Trudeau was the unofficial loser. With three parties in the Quebec National Assembly rejecting the Trudeau vision of Canada and Quebec's place in the nation, it's obvious whatever plans Trudeau has for a political career have had a serious set-back. At least in his home province, unless he wants to run as a Westmount Rhodesian in western Montreal.

Prime Minister Harper is also a big winner in the Quebec election. Dumont embraces the original Reform version of federalism more than any other. With 41 Quebec provincial riding's now natural allies of the Conservative party, and with polls putting the Liberals third in Quebec federally, the Conservatives stand to benefit. If Dumont is the new Bourassa, Harper could be the new Mulroney.

With the Liberal party's dismal showing in French Quebec in the last election and with the Liberal slowness in lining up federal candidates in Quebec, things are looking good for Harper. Les bleus could sweep Harper to a majority.

What is most refreshing about Dumont is his view on equalization. Dumont recently stated that instead of complaining about how much Quebec receives in equalization, he wants to see Quebec in a position where the province doesn't need equalization. A refreshing change from Whiny Williams from Newfoundland.

It would be easy for Quebec to move out of the equalization ghetto. By taxing consumption instead of work, Quebec could quickly modernize itself. Charging people market rates for electricity from Quebec Hydro would quickly balance the budget. Raising the HST back up to 15 per cent and keeping what the federal government gives up the next time the GST is lowered would also be a good plan.

Backed by his mentor Lucien Bouchard who has also called for the modernization of Quebec, Dumont could transform the province. Cuts in taxes on income and business would off-set the other increases and Quebec would be booming.
If Dumont can skillfully manage his inexperienced caucus and manage some small victories with Harper's help, he could be premier in less than two years.

Voting Intentions

Polls give some indication of voter intention, but aren't truly reliable of how an election will turn out. Liberal and Conservative strong-holds give each party an artifical bump without giving an accurate indication of where the swing voters will go. Polls that show Canadians publically support the Kyoto Accord don't take into account how many of those people will quietly and privately vote for Harper's tax cuts on election day.
The outcome of the next federal election can better be determined by the intentions of the following groups:

1) Rural rednecks: They may be let down by the gun registry not being scrapped and may be courted by Quebec bashing as done by the Saskatchewan provincial NDP, but they don't really have anywhere to go. There is a lot Harper can do to shore up his support with these voters and they will likely stay Conservative.

2) Maritime voters: These voters thought they would be on the government side by voting Liberal but were wrong. Next election they have to gamble. Opposition Liberal or possible Conservative cabinet minister? Look for PEI to elect at least one Conservative and several tradtional PC seats will likely return to the Conservative fold.

3) Regular guys: The Conservatives will increase their vote among the so-called "Tim Horton's" voters. Especially if the Conservatives emphasize the strong Liberal support for the man-boy love community, such as the Liberals selecting Bill Graham as interim leader or the Liberals giving government money to kiddie-porn advocate Robin Sharpe.

4) Gay and Lesbian voters: The same-sex marriage issue is off the radar. The Conservatives are reportedly recruiting gay candidates in Vancouver Centre and Toronto Centre. Toronto Centre is home to that city's large gay community and has been represented by a gay man since 1993. Several gay or lesbian Liberals are reported to be seeking the Toronto Centre Liberal nomination, including a provincial Ontario Liberal cabinet minister. If Dion tries to parachute a female candidate into the riding, look for a backlash and large numbers of the gay/lesbian community going NDP or Green.

5)Soccer moms: They voted Liberal last time because of negative Liberal ads against Harper. Now they know Harper isn't that scary. If Jack Layton is smart he will emphasize the Liberal MP Paul Steckle being allowed to bring in an anti-abortion bill. With childcare cheques and tax cuts to help pay down their mortgage and save for their childrens education, the Mike Harris voters will return the suburbs to the Conservatives. Even Garth "It's all about me" Turner won't be safe.

6) Angry Urban Wimps: They don't like guns. They don't like SUV's. They don't like alpha males, whether it's the military or Bay Street. Still seething over being geeks in high school, the angry wimp will never vote Conservative. Whether these pinched, pious preachers of political correctness vote NDP or Green or flock to the Liberals to block Harper will determine many urban and ex-urban ridings.

7) Stylish Spinsters: They don't have husbands, but think same-sex marriage is important. They don't have children, but think the right to abort one is sacred. These Sex in the City gals are written off by the Conservatives and the battle for their vote will determine the survival of the NDP and Liberal fortunes. They could actually vote Conservative if they knew how important the health of the Alberta economy was to Toronto restaurants and boutiques and the value of the condo they purchsed in a bubble market, but the Toronto media will not talk about that.

8) Union members: Buzz Hargrove is no fan of Kyoto or being shut out of Ottawa. If the NDP were to put the spotlight on how Paul Martin took the pension surplus of unionized Voyageur busline workers when Martin owned that company and talked about how the Voyaguer retirees had their pensions cut 30 per cent because of Martin's actions, it would piss off union members. Especially when compared to the hell that was raised when Conrad Black took the Dominion store employee's pension surplus. Why was the Liberal caucus so quiet about union workers being screwed and shafted by Martin? Even Hargrove couldn't back the Liberals again.

9) Trendy youth: They swung towards the NDP last election and will swing towards the Green Party next election. Look for an embarrassing photo op when Liberal youth try to stage a photo shoot to convince young voters how "hip" Dion is.

10) Quebec nationalists: The BQ/PQ seem to be running out of steam. Where would this vote go among those who will vote in a federal election? Look for Harper to be endorsed by Charest, Dumont and Lucien Bouchard. They will tell Quebec that Conservative openess to Quebec is better than Liberal centralizing.

The actions of these groups could give the Conservatives 5-6 more seats in the Martimes, 10-30 more seats in Quebec, 10-20 more seats in Ontario and several more seats in BC.

2006 IN REVIEW

Winners of the Year: Stephen Harper, Stephane Dion
Losers of the Year: Paul Martin and his team, Michael Ignatieff, Jim Dinning, Bob Rae
Best Political Show Host: Don Newman
Worst Political Show Host: Jane Taber
Best Political Columnist: Andrew Coyne, Paul Wells, Chantal Hebert
Best Political Blog: Calgary Grit- an amazing amount of work, readable, humourous and a minimum of cult-member mentality.
Most Effective Blogger: Stephen Taylor. He embarrassed the CBC into an on air apology and embarassed the Liberals into dropping the $20,000 fine against Joe Volpe.
Most Effective Runner-Up: TDH Strategies and the role he played in cleaning up Liberal student clubs.
Best New Blog: nbpolitico, a Calgary Grit from down east.
Political Fan-Dancer: Frank McKenna and his constant will-he-run routine.
Most Over-Hyped Story: Same-sex marriage. Three years in, less than one per cent of the gay community have had wedding ceremonies. Neither an important human rights issue or a threat to marriage.
Most Under-Reported News Story: Bill Grahams sex life. More dirt than Mark Foley.
Best Political Pundit: Tim Powers
Worst Political Pundit: Scott Reid
Best Political Journalist/Commentator: Don Martin, Rex Murphy, Bob Fife
Worst Political Journalist/Commentator: Everyone at the CBC other than Rex.
Best Hair: Gerard Kennedy, freshly coiffed for the Liberal convention.
Worst Hair: Mark Holland and brunette Belinda.
Best Cabinet Minister: Jim Prentice
Best Oppostion Voices: Mark Holland, Libby Davies
Most Powerful Religious Group: Jewish Canadians
Most Powerless Religious Group: Liberal Catholics.
Fading Ethnic Power-broker: Joe Volpe
Rising Ethnic Power-broker: Navdeep Bains
Reap-As-You Sow Award: To all the Liberals who loved to bash America and then backed Ignatieff, only to find him to be considered "too American"
Good Riddence Award: Svend Robinson
Tough Luck Award: Bernard Lord, who won the popular vote and lost the election in New Brunswick.
Courtney Love Award: Ontario Liberal MPP George Smitherman and his party drug addiction.
Canadian Heroes of the Year: Our soldiers in Afghanistan
Canadian Zeroes of the Year: Israel/Jew bashers in the Liberal party
Please Go Away: Justin Trudeau, Scott Brison
We Miss You: Deborah Grey, Ed Broadbent
Political Comeback: Michael Wilson as ambassador to the US.
Political Bomb: Marc Garneau as star candidate

CANADIAN LIBERAL LEADERSHIP IDOL

Week One: Martha Hall Findley was voted off after performing Alison Moyet's "Invisible", a song about her place in the Canadian political spectrum.

Week Two: For this weeks disco theme, Hedy Fry sang the Carol Douglas song "Burning" in front of a row of flaming crosses, but it didn't connect with viewers and she was voted off the show.

Week Three: It was movie music week and despite stuttering and flailing her arms wildly while singing "Maniac" from "Flashdance", Dr. Carolyn Bennett was the next to go.

Week Four: Scott Brison enjoyed meeting with guest star Joni Mitchell and chose her "Both Sides Now" to reflect his Conservative/Liberal floor crossing adventures, but Brison was off the show after the vote tally.

Week Five: Ken Dryden sang a rousing version of Stompin' Tom Connors "The Hockey Song", but was really weak on a verse translated into French to appeal to Quebec voters. Dryden was sent home by the viewers.

Week Six: Joe Volpe wandered into the crowd, passing the hat among the younger audience members while singing Shania Twain's "God Bless the Child". It couldn't keep Volpe around for another week.

Week Seven: Gerard Kennedy sang a convincing version of Marianne Faithful's "Sliding Through Life on Charm", hoping his slick dance moves would distract from his lack of education and coherent policy, but it wasn't enough to keep Gerard out of the big boy's league.

Week Eight: Bob Rae choose "Tradgedy" for the Bee Gees tribute, but unfortunately it reminded too many people of his previous term in office and it was Rae's last week on the show.

Week Nine: Michael Ignatieff tried to appear hip and cool on the 80's tribute show, but his choice of the Clash song "Should I Stay or Should I Go" made everyone think he was referring to his place in the Liberal party if he didn't win the leadership and voters were turned off.

Week Ten: With Iggy and Stephane Dion as finalists and the bad song choice by Iggy in week nine, Dion's crowd pleasing rendition of "Second-hand Rose" made him the concensous candidate for the weary voters. Joe Clark made a special appearence as an omen of what lies ahead for Dion.