Voting Intentions

Polls give some indication of voter intention, but aren't truly reliable of how an election will turn out. Liberal and Conservative strong-holds give each party an artifical bump without giving an accurate indication of where the swing voters will go. Polls that show Canadians publically support the Kyoto Accord don't take into account how many of those people will quietly and privately vote for Harper's tax cuts on election day.
The outcome of the next federal election can better be determined by the intentions of the following groups:

1) Rural rednecks: They may be let down by the gun registry not being scrapped and may be courted by Quebec bashing as done by the Saskatchewan provincial NDP, but they don't really have anywhere to go. There is a lot Harper can do to shore up his support with these voters and they will likely stay Conservative.

2) Maritime voters: These voters thought they would be on the government side by voting Liberal but were wrong. Next election they have to gamble. Opposition Liberal or possible Conservative cabinet minister? Look for PEI to elect at least one Conservative and several tradtional PC seats will likely return to the Conservative fold.

3) Regular guys: The Conservatives will increase their vote among the so-called "Tim Horton's" voters. Especially if the Conservatives emphasize the strong Liberal support for the man-boy love community, such as the Liberals selecting Bill Graham as interim leader or the Liberals giving government money to kiddie-porn advocate Robin Sharpe.

4) Gay and Lesbian voters: The same-sex marriage issue is off the radar. The Conservatives are reportedly recruiting gay candidates in Vancouver Centre and Toronto Centre. Toronto Centre is home to that city's large gay community and has been represented by a gay man since 1993. Several gay or lesbian Liberals are reported to be seeking the Toronto Centre Liberal nomination, including a provincial Ontario Liberal cabinet minister. If Dion tries to parachute a female candidate into the riding, look for a backlash and large numbers of the gay/lesbian community going NDP or Green.

5)Soccer moms: They voted Liberal last time because of negative Liberal ads against Harper. Now they know Harper isn't that scary. If Jack Layton is smart he will emphasize the Liberal MP Paul Steckle being allowed to bring in an anti-abortion bill. With childcare cheques and tax cuts to help pay down their mortgage and save for their childrens education, the Mike Harris voters will return the suburbs to the Conservatives. Even Garth "It's all about me" Turner won't be safe.

6) Angry Urban Wimps: They don't like guns. They don't like SUV's. They don't like alpha males, whether it's the military or Bay Street. Still seething over being geeks in high school, the angry wimp will never vote Conservative. Whether these pinched, pious preachers of political correctness vote NDP or Green or flock to the Liberals to block Harper will determine many urban and ex-urban ridings.

7) Stylish Spinsters: They don't have husbands, but think same-sex marriage is important. They don't have children, but think the right to abort one is sacred. These Sex in the City gals are written off by the Conservatives and the battle for their vote will determine the survival of the NDP and Liberal fortunes. They could actually vote Conservative if they knew how important the health of the Alberta economy was to Toronto restaurants and boutiques and the value of the condo they purchsed in a bubble market, but the Toronto media will not talk about that.

8) Union members: Buzz Hargrove is no fan of Kyoto or being shut out of Ottawa. If the NDP were to put the spotlight on how Paul Martin took the pension surplus of unionized Voyageur busline workers when Martin owned that company and talked about how the Voyaguer retirees had their pensions cut 30 per cent because of Martin's actions, it would piss off union members. Especially when compared to the hell that was raised when Conrad Black took the Dominion store employee's pension surplus. Why was the Liberal caucus so quiet about union workers being screwed and shafted by Martin? Even Hargrove couldn't back the Liberals again.

9) Trendy youth: They swung towards the NDP last election and will swing towards the Green Party next election. Look for an embarrassing photo op when Liberal youth try to stage a photo shoot to convince young voters how "hip" Dion is.

10) Quebec nationalists: The BQ/PQ seem to be running out of steam. Where would this vote go among those who will vote in a federal election? Look for Harper to be endorsed by Charest, Dumont and Lucien Bouchard. They will tell Quebec that Conservative openess to Quebec is better than Liberal centralizing.

The actions of these groups could give the Conservatives 5-6 more seats in the Martimes, 10-30 more seats in Quebec, 10-20 more seats in Ontario and several more seats in BC.