Why The Liberals Will Not Win The Next Election
With the Liberal leadrship campaign being flooded with a score of hopefuls, many in the Liberal Party are believing that the Liberals will bounce back and achieve power in the next election. This will not happen for the following reasons:
1) There is another scandal that may hit the Liberal Party. It is not a corruption scandal, but it is based on the behaviour of one of the sitting Liberal MP's. The fact that this MP was not eased out before the last elction, freeing up a riding for Michael Ignatieff, shows that the Liberal party is unaware of what may surface.
2) The Liberals are dead in Quebec.
3) The Liberals will likely lose several seats in the Maritimes as more traditional PC voters move to the Conservative Party.
4) Sitting members are likely to be re-elected, which is what helped so many Liberals hang on in the last election. Former Liberal cabinent ministers like Jean LaPierre, Ralph Goodale and Andy Scott are not likely to hang around in Opposition, making their seats more winnable for other parties.
5) The Conservatives can flood the media with stories about Liberal fraud, corruption etc. regarding the missing money from the Canadian Space Agency, Adscam, the gun registry, polling expenses and on and on.
6) With a census being done in May 2006, and with Harper's commitment to seeing the West having more representation, Alberta and BC will be given more seats in the House of Commons, seats that are out of reach for the Liberals.
7) The Liberal party will be divided after the leadership race, and Liberal finances will be in poor shape.
8) Forty per cent of the people who voted Liberal in the last election are happy with the Harper government. When voters figure out the Liberals were lying about how "scary" Stephen Harper is, they will know the Liberals were terrified of having someone else have access to the government books and seeing where the money went.
9) The Liberal practice of not speaking more than 10 seconds without mentioning America or George Bush indicates how intellectually bankrupt the party is. (Hello Steve MacKinnon)
10) The NDP is the real alternative to the Conservatives in Western Canada, and they will grow. The NDP also has a chance to nab Liberal ridings with star candidates, such as former NB NDP leader Elizabeth Weir in Saint John or a strong candidate in Toronto Centre.
With the Liberal leadrship campaign being flooded with a score of hopefuls, many in the Liberal Party are believing that the Liberals will bounce back and achieve power in the next election. This will not happen for the following reasons:
1) There is another scandal that may hit the Liberal Party. It is not a corruption scandal, but it is based on the behaviour of one of the sitting Liberal MP's. The fact that this MP was not eased out before the last elction, freeing up a riding for Michael Ignatieff, shows that the Liberal party is unaware of what may surface.
2) The Liberals are dead in Quebec.
3) The Liberals will likely lose several seats in the Maritimes as more traditional PC voters move to the Conservative Party.
4) Sitting members are likely to be re-elected, which is what helped so many Liberals hang on in the last election. Former Liberal cabinent ministers like Jean LaPierre, Ralph Goodale and Andy Scott are not likely to hang around in Opposition, making their seats more winnable for other parties.
5) The Conservatives can flood the media with stories about Liberal fraud, corruption etc. regarding the missing money from the Canadian Space Agency, Adscam, the gun registry, polling expenses and on and on.
6) With a census being done in May 2006, and with Harper's commitment to seeing the West having more representation, Alberta and BC will be given more seats in the House of Commons, seats that are out of reach for the Liberals.
7) The Liberal party will be divided after the leadership race, and Liberal finances will be in poor shape.
8) Forty per cent of the people who voted Liberal in the last election are happy with the Harper government. When voters figure out the Liberals were lying about how "scary" Stephen Harper is, they will know the Liberals were terrified of having someone else have access to the government books and seeing where the money went.
9) The Liberal practice of not speaking more than 10 seconds without mentioning America or George Bush indicates how intellectually bankrupt the party is. (Hello Steve MacKinnon)
10) The NDP is the real alternative to the Conservatives in Western Canada, and they will grow. The NDP also has a chance to nab Liberal ridings with star candidates, such as former NB NDP leader Elizabeth Weir in Saint John or a strong candidate in Toronto Centre.
posted by nuna d. above at 1:59 PM
5 Comments:
I think it is way too early to tell what will happen next election. There are lots of opportunities for Harper to screw up between now and the election. Never mind Canadians aren't very right to begin with so the party closest to the centre naturally tends to win the most, which is the Liberals.
1. The Tories will try to uncover whatever scandals they can about the Liberals, but since we already spanked them pretty hard once, I think most Canadians will ignore them. If they were still in power it would be a different story off course.
2. Generally agree here, but I don't think it should be automatically assumed Harper will gain seats from the Bloc Quebecois. He might or he might not. Quebecers don't tend to be particularly loyal to any one party rather they vote for who will best represent their interests so a lot can change between now and the next election just as much did between 2004 and 2006.
3. At most they will lose 5 seats. Most of the traditional PCs who didn't go Conservative are Joe Clark type Red Tories who oppose both economic and social conservatism so they cannot woo them over without alienating their more right wing base.
4. Jean Lapierre agreed he probably won't run again, but I think Ralph Goodale and Andy Scott will. You are certainly right that those two not running would greatly increase the chances of the Tories taking those ridings. In the case of Jean Lapierre, the Tories haven't got a living hell in hope of winning that riding. If Lapierre loses his seat it will be to the Bloc, not the Tories
5. People tend to tune out corruption after a few weeks. In the past only talking about corruption did more harm than good to the Tories. In fact their success in 2006 came mainly because they talked about their policies rather than the corruption issue.
6. Alberta is out of reach for the Liberals, but in British Columbia almost all the growth has been in the Lower Mainland where the Liberals finished ahead of both the NDP and Conservatives. More importantly their support has gone up each election in this region. In fact adding more ridings to the Lower Mainland would likely help the Liberals rather than hurt them. The Conservatives are only strong in the Fraser Valley and a few wealthy predominately white suburban ridings. All the middle, working class and multi-ethnic ridings (with the exception of James Moore's) went Liberal or NDP.
7. Parties tend to more united in opposition since they have a common enemy. Liberals may have their divisions, but they all share one thing in common, they dislike Stephen Harper more than any of their own candidates. Their finances will be in poor shape, but people vote based on values, not how much money are party has. The Conservatives have a more motivated base, but the Liberals appeal to the silent majority in the centre.
8. That means nothing at the moment. Over 50% of Alliance voters were happy with Chretien, yet he wasn't able to pick up their votes. Most of the Liberals I know who approve of Harper like what he is doing now, but believe he would govern differently and worse if he had a majority so they still won't vote Conservative.
9. Anti-Americanism and bashing Bush may be bad in terms of trading relations, but it wins votes. 80% of Canadians disapprove of Bush so the more they link Harper to Bush the better for them. Few Canadians admit to being anti-American, but most deep down inside do dislike the United States and what matters in the voting booth is not what you say publicly, but what you think deep down inside.
10. The NDP could just as easily pick up Conservative seats in Western Canada as they did this past election. Saint John will go either Liberal or Conservative. Elizabeth Weir is strong in the Harbour part of the riding, but the suburbs are centre-right in their leanings. Toronto Centre includes wealthy districts like Rosedale eliminating the possibility of an NDP win while includes Regent Park and a large gay village eliminating the possibility of a Conservative win. Bill Graham or whoever runs under the Liberal banner will easily win there.
What is the scandal that you are alluding to? Just a hint, please!
I think he is just guessing there is another scandal, but doesn't know of one. If there is one you can be sure the Tories will dig it up. Off course if the next leader has little to do with either the Martin or Chretien camps, I don't know how well it will work.
Miles, the scandal I'm referrring to does not involve operations of the Liberal Party, but centres around someone in the Libreral caucus.
Outremont has gone Conservative in 1988. In BC the province is polarized between socialists and free-marketers. The NDP and Conservatives could both gain seats as the Liberals stop being the free-market option. Kyle Rae could likely win Grahams seat if he ran for the NDP.
Joanne, your hint is "Michael Jackson". It's all over the internet. It becomes less relevent after Dec. 3.
Who just might that someone be. I somehow think you are just dreaming here
Outremont went PC in 1988 but that was before the Bloc Quebecois was around. Even though Harper may gain seats in Quebec, until the Bloc disappears, neither the Liberals or Tories will dominate the province like they once use to. Several Toronto Centre and Vancouver Centre went PC in 1988, but they certainly won't next election.
BC is not as highly polarized as many think. Even though provincially you may have a pro-free enterprise party and a socialist party, that doesn't mean all voters fall in those two camps. Outside the Lower Mainland this is true, but in the Lower Mainland (trust me I know what I am talking about since I live there), there is a very strong centrist element.
Toronto Centre go NDP if Rosedale was taken out of the riding and moved over to a neighbouring riding, but I cannot see the wealthy wanting to vote for Jack "please raise my taxes" Layton.
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