Friday, June 23, 2006

THE MOST VULNERABLE LIBERAL RIDINGS
Many of the Liberal MP's sitting in the current make-up of the House of Commons won their seats with a majority, many approaching the 60 percent mark. Others barely held their seats, benefitting from incumbancy and Harper's unknown factor. The Liberal party is going to have to devote a lot of effort to holding onto the following ridings:
West Nova- Lib 39.2 Con 38.1 Swing riding.
Madawaska Restigouche- Lib 38.3 Con 35.4 Swing riding.
Saint John-Lib 42.9 Con 39.3 Tory riding from 1984-2004.
Honore Mercier- Lib 38.4 BQ 34.6
Hull-Alymer- Lib 32.7 BQ 29.4
Lasalle Emard-Paul Martin held the riding but he can't resign for fear of the Liberals losing here.
Outremont-Lib 35.1 Liberal weakness in Quebec could lose this riding.
Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing- Lib 38.2 NDP 34.5
Beaches-East York Liberal 40.4 NDP 35 Former NDP riding, Green Party leader cost NDP votes.
Brant- Lib 36.9 Con 36
Huron Bruce- Lib 39.7 Con 38.1
Kenora- Lib 36.6 Con 31.3
London West- Lib 37.7 Con 35.5
Missasauga-Erindale- Lib 44.8 Con 39.2
Missasauga-South Lib 43.9 Con 39.8
Nickle Belt- Lib 43.1 NDP 38.5
Oakville- Lib 43.2 Con 42.1
Thunder Bay-Rainy River-Lib 35.1 NDP 33.4
Thunder Bay-Superior North- Lib 36 NDP 34.9
Welland-Lib 35.5 NDP 30.7
Churchill- Lib 40 Tina Keeper won this but the NDP vote split with former NDP MP running as an independant.
Saint Boniface- Lib 38.6 Con 35
Desenthe-Missinippi-Churchill River- Lib 41.5 Con 41 Vote fraud alledged on reserve.
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca-Lib 34.9 NDP 31.4 Swing riding.
Newton-North Delta- Lib 34 NDP 32.4 Con 30 Swing riding.
Richmond- Lib 42.8 Con 38.7 Swing riding.
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Lib 37.5 Con 36 Swing riding.

1 Comments:

Blogger Jason Cherniak said...

I think you forget that the Tories have just as many seats that they barely won. A swing of something like 20,000 votes in the right ridings could lead to anything from a Tory majority to a Lib majority. However, you need to remember that the ridings with the greater majorities are going to gain votes for their party first.

11:57 AM  

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