Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Out in Outremont

Outremont is a lovely part of Montreal. Whether the by-election results there were lovely depends on whether you are a fan of Stephane Dion. The residents of that riding were not. Is the NDP win a fluke, like the last NDP by-election win in Quebec was? Or is it an omen of things to come, like the 1990 by-election in Laurier-Ste. Marie that first elected Gilles Duceppe to the House of Commons as a BQ MP?
The 1990 by-election was called because a beloved Liberal MP died of cancer. His widow was planning to run to succeed him. However, the newly elected federal Liberal leader-Jean Chretien-had his thugs pressure the widow to bow out of the race so his fart-catcher Denis Coderre could run in the riding. As the election wound down, the widow popped up in the media and said "If my husband was alive, he'd vote for the BQ", dooming any chance the Liberals had and setting the stage for Duceppe's political career.
Are there any similarities between that by-election and the one in Outremont?
New Liberal leader unpopular with francophones? Check.
Local Liberals shoved aside in the nomination process? Check.
Liberals with name recognition shut out of the nomination? Check.
Liberal leader's crony forced on riding? Check.
Quebec continuing the drift away from the Liberal party that started in 1984? Check.
The Quebec voters now realize they have a viable option. Unhappy with Conservatives? Don' t want to vote for the Trudeau/Chretien/Anti-Meech crowd? There is another option, especially if you're tired of the seperatist debate, as Qubeckers showed they were in the last provincial election.
The Liberals now have 12 of the 75 seats in Quebec. Some of them went Conservative under Mulroney, some were barely held on to in the last federal election. The look on Pablo Rodriguez's face as he talked to the CPAC reporter on the night of the Liberal loss in Outremont indicated that he knew how tenuous the Liberal party's situation in Quebec was.
This isn't a blip. It's a new option for Quebec voters. The collapse of the Green vote and the NDP growth in the by-elections was the first indication. Name candidates from Montreal choosing to run for the NDP will be the confirmation.

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